The future lithium battery energy storage space is very large. Lithium batteries are the most commercialized new energy storage route, and long-term energy storage installations such as liquid flow and compressed air are accelerated. In 2022, the newly installed capacity of energy storage in Q1 will be 6.7GW, of which lithium battery energy storage is 4.2GW. Q1 shipments in 2022 were lower than expected, but shipments for the full year are expected to double.

"The rise in battery cell prices cannot stop the enthusiasm for the development of energy storage. So far this year, the average price of energy storage systems has increased to 1.6-1.8 yuan/Wh. According to research and forecasts, 2 yuan/Wh should be the upper limit this year." Dr. Zhang Xiaofei said.

Currently, the top three installed markets for energy storage in the world are the United States, China and Europe. According to public information in 2021, the installed capacity of energy storage in the United States is 13.1GW, China is 9.2GW, and Europe is 2.7GW. According to the forecast of the Advanced Industrial Research Institute (GGII), by 2025, China's installed energy storage capacity will surpass that of the United States, reaching 30GW and 27.9GW respectively. Europe will also reach 8.1GW in 2025.

On June 17, the 2022 High-tech Energy Storage Industry Summit opened at Changzhou Maoshan International Conference Center. More than 1,300 industry chain business leaders, high-level executives and industry professionals conducted in-depth discussions on "carbon neutrality to open the era of energy storage".

Lithium battery is the mainstream in the era of energy storage

"In the era of energy storage, lithium batteries are the mainstream of energy storage batteries in the future." Dr. Zhang Xiaofei, chairman of Gaogong Consulting, delivered a keynote speech on "The era of energy storage, great opportunities for lithium batteries".

Zhang Xiaofei said that the future lithium battery energy storage space is very large. Lithium batteries are the most commercialized new energy storage route, and long-term energy storage installations such as liquid flow and compressed air are accelerated. In 2022, the newly installed capacity of energy storage in Q1 will be 6.7GW, of which lithium battery energy storage is 4.2GW. Q1 shipments in 2022 were lower than expected, but shipments for the full year are expected to double. 

"The development of both new energy storage and past energy storage models is very fast, not only in China, but also in the U.S. market." Zhang Xiaofei said that the current electricity situation in the United States is relatively bad. For example, when he visited the United States last year, he witnessed the severe damage to the Texas power system in a hailstorm. At present, the huge demand for energy storage in foreign markets such as the United States is also a greater opportunity for domestic enterprises.

Lithium battery energy storage has three obvious characteristics in the process of rapid growth: 1) The industrial chain is mature and the scale benefit is obvious; 2) The comprehensive performance is excellent, and the investment cost is low; 3) The construction period is short and can be quickly configured. Under such a good development situation, according to GGII forecast, in 2025, the shipments of domestic energy storage enterprises will exceed 325GWh. 

In 2022, lithium battery energy storage will see an obvious upward trend, and three development trends will gradually emerge: 1) The demand for shared energy storage power stations will explode. From January to April 2022, there will be 128 shared energy storage power stations in China, with a total of 26.8GWh; 2) Lithium battery energy storage power stations have entered the gigawatt era. According to preliminary statistics, since 2022, the scale of energy storage power stations will gradually be dominated by GW. 3) Domestic enterprises accelerate their "going overseas" and enter the era of 100 megawatt orders. According to incomplete statistics, since 2022, Narada Power, Xiamen Haichen, Kelu Electronics, and Trina Energy Storage have made obvious steps to "go overseas".

On the battery cell side, the shipment volume of CATL still far exceeds that of other battery cell manufacturers. The next two years will be an important strategic opportunity period, and cost and technology are the core competitiveness factors. However, some new battery players in 2021 have performed strongly. For example, the planned production capacity of Haichen Energy Storage’s Xiamen base and Chongqing base has reached 135GWh; Ruipu Lanjun and Chuneng New Energy also have a capacity layout of over 100 GWh.

At the same time as the development of large-scale energy storage power stations, household energy storage, and portable energy storage, the integration of energy storage systems has gradually shown three trends: high efficiency, high integration, and high security.

According to GGII statistics, the top 15 companies in energy storage system shipments in 2021 are: Sungrow, BYD, CATL, Hyperstron, Narada Internet, Zhongtian Technology, Cairi Energy, NARI Jibao, Dongfang Risheng, Pinggao Energy Storage, Electric Guoxuan, Huifeng Energy Storage, Trina Energy Storage, Kelu Electronics, Zhiguang Energy Storage. It is reported that these enterprises have developed a layout in terms of integration and integration, and have strong competitive advantages. 

However, in general, the competitive landscape of energy storage system integration enterprises has not yet been finalized, and integrated enterprises will have greater competitive advantages in the short and medium term.

"Bad money drives out good money" objectively exists

Zhang Xiaofei pointed out that while energy storage is making great progress, "bad money drives out good money" objectively exists, and the business model needs to be further matured. 

From the perspective of battery pack suppliers, system integrators require strict quality assurance conditions, and it is difficult to meet the consistency of battery capacity; some domestic owners have serious price reductions, low entry barriers, and echelon and B-product batteries flood the market; 

From the point of view of the system integrator, the definition of responsible accidents is unclear, and the multi-suppliers of batteries, BMS, EMS, and PCS frequently argue; the rising cost of batteries reduces the gross profit of the project, and the downstream projects are cancelled/postponed; some domestic owners pay more attention to the initial cost than kWh cost, forcing integrators to lower quality and reduce costs; 

From the owner's point of view, the skyrocketing cost of battery cells has seriously weakened the project's yield, and the investment has a strong wait-and-see mood; it is difficult to completely eliminate the fire and explosion accident of electrochemical energy storage assets, and safety problems; local participation in the electricity market access policy is not complete, and now Stage business model is immature. 

From the grid side, the large-scale grid connection of energy storage projects affects the stability of the grid; the management experience, theoretical accumulation and scheduling concepts of large-scale grid connection of energy storage need to be changed. 

Zhang Xiaofei said that in order to eliminate the chaos of good money with bad money in energy storage, the way to break the situation in the future mainly focuses on the following three points: first, strengthen the cooperation and integration of the industrial chain, and rationally reduce costs; second, update the energy storage system and battery modules. , PCS, BMS and other core components industry standards; third, to promote the transformation of industry investment from low initial cost to low cost of electricity.